Monday, June 09, 2008

Election Update

Funny isn't funny, if there is no truth in it. This cartoon is salient and sage.

Rush said that this election will be an up or down vote on Obama. If the American electorate perceives him as being too expensive, too liberal and too scary, then we will win. But he has a lot of money and though this is the top of the summer, he still has a 6 point lead in the polls.

Battleground states are in Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. Winning over the moderates will be key to this election. Moderates are telling John McCain that running away from Bush is not the way to go, but instead tell the voters what you would do different. Moderates are telling Obama to stop pandering, quit being so negative, can we stop with the vapid general platitudes and be truthful and honest about who you are and who your associations are.

We are looking at mid-June right now. To give you some perspective of how important the summer is after the fourth of July four years ago Kerry picked his running mate and by August, Kerry had been swift boated. Voters in the summer like to flirt with fanciful ideas which favor Obama. But by fall and November, voters get more pragmatic.

And what about his running mate? Hillary Clinton can make this summer one very very cruel summer if Obama doesn't pick her. If he doesn't pay her off to the tune of 30 million dollars (campaign debt) or pick her up as VP, winning will be much much harder. If the summer turns ugly for Obama meaning McCain surges to reverse the lead to six point advantage, not likely but possible, Hillary may mount a third party challenge. Not likely, but again I want to emphasize that the Clinton are defeated but not dead.

And it is in Hillary's interest to see McCain elected IF she is not selected. Given that Obama is not sure himself who he will select, he is a calculating thespian controlled by his wife, I would say the possibility that Hillary will be the Dem VP to be at 40%.

Oil has displaced all other issues. Dems like to talk about Energy where as Red Meat Republicans on talk radio talk about drilling here and drilling now. This election will hinge on who can bring gas prices down the fastest. I told you that oil would be the most important issue of this election.

One final word about McCain. He has a Lazarus like ability to come from behind and come back from the dead. His powers of prophesy i.e. seeing that Iraq under the surge endears him to many Americans. His weaknesses are his vanity and his anger. He sure can hold a grudge and he tends to sistah souljah the wrong people. Look for him to come home to conservatism after the first 100 days and I don't think he will serve one term. I think he will do two and become one of the best Presidents we have ever had inaugarating a new American Renaissance.

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