Thursday, October 27, 2011

2012 - GOP Landslide?


In my previous blog, I outlined Barack Obama most probable path to victory.  It contains the imprimatur of the mainstream pundits.  Conventional wisdom not only lacks novelty, it often lacks accuracy.  None of the conventional wisdom pundits predicted the housing bubble of 2008.  The conventional wisdom failed to predict any of the economic calamities since the tower of Babel.  The conventional wisdom did not predict the 80-seat pick up by the Tea Party.  Thus we must cast aside beliefs and agreed upon truths held by the majority and we must think outside the box.  We calibrate our creativity against the cold hard facts.  But to be creative we have to do something that we encourage in children and discourage in adults.

We have to dream.

The support for this President oscillates between tepid and rage.  Let’s face it, he is at best a disappointment and at worst a disgrace.  And if more Americans we agree me, and every passing day they do, there is only one way to deal with those who have disgraced us – permanent dismissal.

If the Republican challenger garners all the 179 electoral votes from the 22 McCain states and the 110 electoral votes from all nine of the swing states (Ohio, Indiana,  New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico), he will have 289 electoral votes.  This means he will have 19 more electoral votes more than the 270 needed to win.

But what if he could win 365?  What if this new leader could command the same number of votes that Barack Obama himself commanded in 2008?  He will have a mandate will he not?  He most assuredly will have supermajorities in the House and Senate.  He will have a mandate to govern.

Is it even possible?

Not only is possible, the likelihood grows everyday.  Consider the following states that this bold challenger could win:

State
E Votes 2012
Alabama
9
Kentucky
8
Arkansas
6
West Virginia
5
Kansas
6
Oklahoma
6
Utah
6
Idaho
3
Montana
3
North Dakota
3
Wyoming
3
Texas
38
Georgia
16
Tennessee
11
Missouri
10
South Carolina
9
Louisiana
8
Mississippi
6
Arizona
11
Nebraska
6
Alaska
3
South Dakota
3
Ohio
18
Indiana
11
New Hampshire
4
Florida
29
North Carolina
15
Virginia
13
Colorado
9
Nevada
6
New Mexico
5
Pennsylvania
20
Michigan
16
New Jersey
14
Minnesota
10
Wisconsin
10
Iowa
6

365

I have identified six states that the Republican Presidential challenger could win where support for Obama is faltering.  In other words, six blue states are turning purple they are: Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.  Support for the President in these new purple states is below 50%.  The economy in these states isn’t improving and they know it.  The right Republican challenger – a tactful charismatic conservative could find legions of 21st century Reagan democrats – re-flagged once as so-called ‘independents’ - flocking to his banner.



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