Hollywood Update

Fellow artists, last week myself Ricardo and Cliff Wong went to Tanya Essien's event where we met Neri Rivas who is the art director at one of the biggest Hispanic Advertising Agencies

http://orci.com/

Here is his portfolio,

http://www.nerinoir.com/

Neri presented his career story which is very compelling for a guy still in his 20's. He worked in FIDM at a low wage, high stress job and decided to pursue a free lance opportunities. His rent was coming due and a network opportunity led him to his job at ORCI. He told us that he really loved typography - a class most of my peers blow off. I also looked at his work. It was in an order of magnitude above my own but not out of my reach.

I also met Tom Hamilton, the hiring manager for EA. I asked him what EA's hiring prospects. He told me that they were pretty dim. They laid off over 1500 people and that they would not be introducing more games because some of their launches failed to get off the beach.

What I came away with:

1) develop and update my portfolio
2) make more informal contacts

There is an event for gamers in the OC called Beer Wednesdays attended by the folks at Giant Studios. Of which AI-OC alums Ryan Quinlan typically attend.

In the movie industry, my buddy Kevin is busy and working. So that's good. He had a behind the scenes bit Iron Man 2. Those big productions are very political. Mickey Rourke complained on Fox News' Hannity that others tried to get him kicked off of the film.

In Indy news, my buddy Luis Pimber is releasing his short film. Sundance, the Sante Fe and possibly a festival in Los Angeles may be in Pimber's future. Your loyal author contributed somewhat in the deep developmental phases of this now finished project. HADITHA veterans Elliot Ruiz and Andrew McLaren reprise earlier roles as an undercover narcotics cop and white supremacist biker respectively.

Ryan Seacrest Productions did not select me as a contestant for their television reality series Chance. However a film by David Neff where I was Unit Production Manager called Westward soldier premiered at the Tucson Film Festival. Oscar D. Rivera was the cinematographer.

I finished my photography portrait where culinary student Jessica Moffatt modeled:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDvdfxcqLCA
Final Project:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uzWgNTOydU

Political campaign advertisements is advertisement media. And on that score, my good friend and fellow soldier, Jonathan Paton released a slick TV campaign ad that featured footage provided by the none other than your loyal author.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uqKIGcX-78

The footage at the Tea Party was provided by me! The newspapers are a buzz that his slick campaign ad could signal a challenge to incumbutent Democrat Gabby Giffords who is unpopular in the district but it also signals a threat to Tea Party candidate Jesse Kelly. I have met and done ads for both. I like Jesse. Jonathan's my friend.

My Analysis:It is a bit grim when the hiring manager for one of the largest gaming companies has laid off so many workers. It further reinforces what many economists have reported that the lay offs have cut into the bone of most companies in anticipation of more macroeconomic instability from Washington DC. We know that the studios are making money. Box offices are reporting record sales. Are other parts of the escapist economy such as television and games taking off as well?

I am not driving to the OC but there has to similar events. I am cutting back on my school schedule to devote more time to my craft. One's craft also needs life experience. In other words all work and no play make jack a dull boy.

Side note:My website debuts today. A colleague Daniel Newsome from Seattle was the bare bones web architect. You will be glad to know that little Timmy Warren was the digital colorist.

http://www.airbornecomics.me/

Welcome to Swing Town!

Welcome to swing town, where the hep cats and kitties go to jive dancing the blues away into the wee small hours of the morning.  I am your default host James “Jimbo” Bretney swing dancer par excellence and I want to welcome you into my world.

 

Swing dancing – what is it?  Swing dancing is a partner dance popularized by the late 20’s and early 60’s set to jazz standards.  As I write, Mr. Artie Shaw is in the background playing “Begin the Beguine.”  The basic dance, we teach in swing town is the jitterbug.  It is a step – step - rock step.  For gents, you will step with your left foot, then your right, then you will place your left foot behind your right and shift your weight to create a rock step.  Ladies, you do the opposite.  You do that and BAM! – you are officially a swing dancer or swing cat as we say in T-town!

 

Why dance?  Good question, folks I think everyone should dance.  I will have so much fun at a swing dance event that hurts me that not more people dance.  It is the most fun you can have with your clothes on.  It is that good.

 

Enclosed is a music video, your humbled author wrote, directed and produced to give you the uninitiated a glimpse of the joy that is swing dancing.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZuz8ggYpXY

 

I have also attached a few flattering pictures of your esteemed author to democratize any misconceptions you might have that swing dancers are effete elite pretty people with the social acumen appropriate of a Baz Luhrman cast member.  We are just regular people trying to have fun.

 

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=318301&op=1&o=global&view=global&subj=1484928356&id=1484928356

 

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=318302&op=1&o=global&view=global&subj=1484928356&id=1484928356

 

 

 

 

 

Iraq Construction Jobs

----- Original Message -----
From: civilianjobs@militaryplacementexperts.com
Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008 19:33
Subject: Iraq Construction Jobs

You are receiving this job announcement because you are registered as a job seeker at CivilianJobs.com.

Several opportunities for Construction Professionals in Iraq!

Construction Program Manager - must have construction experience in Iraq. Looking for 15+ years of construction experience. BS in Civil Eng. MS in Eng field preferred.

Construction Design Engineer - BS in Civil or related Eng field. Experience with design construction in Iraq. Must have experience with construction of military camps. Well versed design engineer in civil/structural design.

Operational Civil Engineer - Experienced project engineer with construction and sub contractor experience in Iraq. BS in Civil Eng.

Construction Project Manager - must have construction project management experience in Iraq.

If you do not fit the criteria but wish you refer a qualified candidate, please send an email to Mstern@civilianjobs.com. For qualified candidates - please send resume and availability date to Mstern@civilianjobs.com.

If you are no longer looking for a new career no longer wish to receive updates from CivilianJobs.com, please reply and add Remove to the subject line.

George R. Bernloehr Jr.

Vice President of Operations

CivilianJobs.com

1825 Barrett Lakes Blvd., Suite 300

Kennesaw, GA 30144

Phone 678-819-4161

Fax 678-819-5161

gbernloehr@civilianjobs.com

Where the Military Connects with Civilian Careers

Drill Here Drill Now Update

--- On Tue, 6/24/08, Newt Gingrich wrote:

From: Newt Gingrich
Subject: My Message to Democrats
To: biz_account_only@yahoo.com
Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2008, 10:55 AM

Newt Gingrich

June 24, 2008
Vol. 3, No. 26
My Message to Democrats: Listen to the People and Make This 4th of July Energy Independence Day
By Newt Gingrich


This week I want to do something a little different.

Although my Winning the Future message has always been directed at all Americans, whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats, or independents, today I am directing my message specifically to Democrats. And my message is this:

The American people have spoken. Are your leaders listening?
Over 1.1 Million Americans Call on Congress to "Drill Here, Drill Now"

We really had no idea, just 35 days ago when we first posted the "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" petition here, that we would provide the spark that has ignited a fire among frustrated, struggling Americans.

In just 35 days, over 1.1 million Americans have signed the petition. Seven hundred and fifty thousand signed in just three weeks. Almost 100,000 signed up in a single day.

Americans of all political parties have signed the "Drill Here, Drill Now" petition. Here's what they're saying:

The 1.1 million Americans who have signed the petition are appealing to Congress to allow environmentally responsible ways to produce more energy here, at home.

They're not calling for higher taxes on oil companies.

They're not blaming foreigners for our energy problems.

They're not begging the Saudis to sell us more oil.

And so my message to ... (continued below)
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... the party that controls Congress is this:

The American people have spoken. Are you listening?
New Poll Shows 74 Percent of Americans Support Offshore Drilling

Through our polling at American Solutions we have long known that a whopping 81 percent of Americans support developing more domestic energy, including oil and coal. And this 81 percent majority is made up of 85 percent of the Republicans, 83 percent of the independents and 76 percent of the Democrats surveyed.

Now we have even more data showing widespread support for increasing domestic energy production.

A new Rasmussen Poll has revealed that a full 67 percent of Americans support offshore drilling.

What is the party breakdown behind these numbers? The supporters were 85 percent Republican, 57 percent Democrat and 60 percent unaffiliated voters.

Moreover, a new Zogby poll shows that 74 percent of Americans support drilling offshore for our American oil. The supporters were 90 percent Republican, 58 percent Democrat, and 75 percent independent voters. A related survey by Zogby also shows that 59 percent of Americans support drilling in ANWR.

In other words, the American people have spoken. Are you listening Democrats?
175 Members of Congress Have Pledged to Increase U.S. Oil Production. Only One Is a Democrat.

As usual, the American people know intuitively what Washington just doesn't understand: You don't have to be a Republican to be struggling to put gas in your car. Democratic and independent families, commuters and small business owners are hurting too.

So why haven't Democrats in Congress responded? Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R.-Ga.) is circulating a petition challenging his House colleagues to pledge to ''vote to increase U.S. oil production to lower gas prices for Americans.'' As of this writing, 175 members of Congress have signed.

Only one, Neal Abercrombie of Hawaii, is a Democrat.
Drilling opponents support more drilling so long as there is no oil

Perhaps some Democrats have been reluctant to sign on because of two popular talking points making the rounds.

These opponents say that oil and gas companies already hold 68 million acres of federal land (offshore and land combined) that they are not using to produce oil and gas. They also say it would take 10 years before any of that oil makes it into our gas tanks.

Just this weekend on Meet the Press, Sen. Joe Biden (D.-Del.) said, "They [the oil companies] have now leased 41 million acres of offshore leases. They're only pumping in 10.2 million of those acres. . . . And John [McCain] says they need more? And it would take 10 years for it to come online."

There are a number of problems with these arguments.

First, when federal waters or lands are leased to energy companies, the first step is to explore for oil - in other words, look for it. Most of the acres leased for oil end up being determined to not hold enough oil or gas to make it profitable for energy companies to actually extract it. So the vast majority of those 68 million acres are not being used for a simple reason: they're currently unusable.

Given this fact, it's obvious that citing the amount of currently unused leased land is a ruse. It allows opponents of using American oil to seem as if they actually support it, when in truth they only support more drilling in areas where there is not enough oil to make it worthwhile to drill. In other words, they actually don't support using our American oil to lower gas prices.

Either it is a ruse, or it is a testament to the profound arrogance of the Washington elite that they believe they understand the business of oil production better than American oil companies.
Drill here, drill now, pay less ... in the short term and long term

Lastly, even if we were to accept the estimate of 10 years to get American oil into our gas tank (if America made it a priority to quickly extract our oil I'm confident we could find a way to speed up the process), there is good reason to believe the short-term affect on oil prices would be significant.

While estimates range on the degree to which oil futures trading is affecting the price of oil, there is broad consensus that it is playing a role. The very act of opening America's vast oil deposits for extraction would send an immediate signal to speculators that supply will be increased, and that betting on higher prices for oil is no longer a safe investment. Prices will fall as a result.

Also, beginning the process of drilling for our American oil would allow us the freedom to empty part of the strategic oil reserve into the market on the promise it will be replenished by these future American sources. This immediate increase in the supply of oil would cause a decrease in price.
Make This July 4th Energy Independence Day

Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, if your leaders aren't listening to the clear, expressed will of the people then you have it in your power to change this, to send the message to Washington that this July 4th will be unlike other July 4ths.

This Independence Day we declare our energy independence. And we give our elected officials this choice:

Either take action to drill here and drill now for American oil or the American people will take action this fall.
What You Can Do NOW to Send a Message to Washington

Here's what you can do:
If your Representative hasn't signed the Westmoreland petition, contact him or her here and make your voice heard.
If you haven't signed the "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" petition, click here and do so today. Our goal is to have three million signatures in time for the Republican and Democratic national conventions.
When your House member is back in the district for the Fourth of July holiday, take the opportunity to personally let him or her know that Americans don't need to be suffering under $4-plus gas and that he has a responsibility to do something about it.
Senator McCain Proposes a $300 Million Prize for a "Super" Car Battery

One of the solutions we've proposed at American Solutions for reducing our dependence on foreign oil and producing more American energy is offering prizes for innovative answers to our energy needs.

When you think about it, prizes are the essence of the American way. Rather than bloated, bureaucratic government programs that are black holes for tax dollars, prizes unleash the creative, entrepreneurial spirit that built this country.

That's why I am so pleased to see that Sen. John McCain has proposed a $300 million prize for the individual who can develop a "super" car battery that can power cars more cheaply and with less harm to the environment.

Congratulations to Sen. McCain for his faith in the ingenuity of the American people. Sen. Obama should join him in passing legislation to create this prize now. This is an idea whose time has come.
A Life Transformed By United Cerebral Palsy

Finally, today I want to mention a remarkable organization that is doing remarkable things for people with disabilities.

This past Thursday, I had the privilege to speak to the leadership of a wonderful organization and member of ... (continued below)
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... the Center for Health Transformation, United Cerebral Palsy. UCP may be one of the most effective organizations you've never heard of. Through their network of affiliates, they provide care to more than 30,000 people with disabilities each day. They approach their work with energy, wisdom and tremendous creativity.

To give you a sense for how this truly 21st century organization operates, their CEO, Steve Bennett, spent several weeks this past November in briefings across Silicon Valley to understand where technology is heading and how it can be put to use immediately to transform the lives of the 54 million Americans with disabilities. This is exactly the approach we need throughout our health system. Click here to learn more about this organization and how you can help.

One example of the wonderful results UCP and its affiliates can deliver is a remarkable girl named Gina. When Gina was just 2 years old she was diagnosed with autism. She did not really start speaking any words until after age 3. Last Thursday, at the age of 6, she sang the National Anthem as beautifully as I've ever heard it sung. You owe it to yourself to read her story here, and if you are planning an event you couldn't find a better person to open it with the National Anthem.


Your friend,

Newt Gingrich

P.S. -- Callista and I were very pleased to see this announcement that our film, "Rediscovering God in America" will be shown at the Carpenter's Workshop Fellowship in Seven Valleys, Pa., on July 2. If your church or organization would like to show our film as well, click here to learn how.


Platform of the American People Progress Report

Each of these leaders signed the petition for the Platform's most prominent plank: "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less." Click here to see which leaders in your state have signed!

U.S. Representative Chris Cannon (R.-Utah)
U.S. Representative Mike Conaway (R.-Texas)
U.S. Representative John Boozman (R.-Ariz.)
State House Minority Leader, Brian King Dist. 91 (R.-Ariz.)
State Representative Chris Saxman Dist. 20 (R.-Va.)
Mayor of Herndon, Va., Stephen DeBenedittis

HAVE YOU SIGNED? Join the Drill Here, Drill Now Pay Less Campaign, and get involved with the entire movement for the Platform of the American People! Contact: Princella Smith info@americansolutions.com

Leading the Majority - Winning the Future's Talk Radio Show

Friday at 2:00 PM ET on RighTalk.com after Paul Weyrich's "The Right Hour."

Last week, Rick and guest-host Michelle Selesky welcomed Glenn Vawter, Executive Director of the National Oil Shale Association. Mr. Vawter discussed the resurgence in oil shale development and how we can responsibly reduce petroleum imports and increase our nation's energy and national security.

Rick and Michelle were also joined by Jon Gordon, speaker, consultant and author of the new book, The No Complaining Rule: Positive Ways to deal with Negativity at Work. Jon talked about how this rule applies to politics in 2008 and how our nation can achieve real change by focusing on positive solutions. [Click here to listen.]

Rick Tyler is Newt's spokesman and Vince Haley directs Newt's policy research.
Human Events | One Massachusetts Avenue, NW | Washington, DC 20001

McCain wants Bee

Dear James: You know that I don’t believe in mincing words or pulling punches. I’ve never shied away from telling it like it is as a United States Senator, and I’ll continue to do so as President of the United States. I believe that in times of uncertainty we need leaders who won’t bend when presented with difficult decisions. Tim Bee is just that kind of leader. Tim is a friend of mine who’s seeking election to Congress in District 8. This is no ordinary race. In fact, it’s one of the most important races in the entire country. You see, our Nation is at a crossroads. The results of this year’s elections will determine our future on issues such as strengthening the economy, lowering taxes and reforming health care. The decisions made this year at the ballot box will affect not only the people of today, but for generations to come. Americans deserve a Congress that will do right by the people, not bow to the whims of special interest groups. As President of the Arizona State Senate, Tim has already demonstrated his convictions and leadership through his ability to solve problems by bringing people together. While his opponent was busy endearing herself to Washington bigwigs, Tim was working to increase funding for our schools, protect our military bases and cut taxes on individuals and businesses. My friend, this is a race WE CAN WIN! Tim is the right candidate at the right time for CD 8. He’s done a great job building support for his candidacy and his race is now recognized as one of the most competitive in the entire country. With your help, we will take back CD 8 from the clutches of special interest groups and return it to the people. I am asking you to please join me in supporting Tim's campaign by making a generous contribution of $35, $50, $100, $1000 or even the maximum $2300. Please click here to make a contribution now. Please do it today - the June 30 filing deadline is less than a week away Sincerely, John McCain P.S. I look forward to serving you as President of the United States alongside great statesmen like Tim Bee! Thank you for all your help and support. You are the backbone that makes our country great!

The Break-Out Brazilian Energy Play

By Sam Hopkins | Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

Brazilian sugar refiners are ready to satisfy America's energy sweet tooth.

Here's what I mean, and why the Brazilian ethanol recommendation noted below is about to explode.

Finally, Free Fuel Trade

If knee-jerk reactions could power cars and planes, the world's politicians could replace fossil fuels in a matter of months.

Early in June the United Nations World Food Summit turned into a tag-team tirade against biofuels, with Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Mexico's Felipe Calderon blaming crop-based energy sources for food riots at home.

There's a kernel of truth there, but developing world demand for food is at record levels because of human consumption, not just biofuels.

In fact, The Council of Economic Advisers and the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate the total global increase in corn-based ethanol production accounts for only about 2-3% of the recent increase in global food prices . Truth be told, food prices are rising for the same reason as oil prices—rapidly rising demand. And we haven't even addressed the fact that oil prices have risen over 4,000% since 1973, while corn prices have risen a mere 120%. But I digress.

Brazil's Thriving Ethanol Industry

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva rightly called the huffing and puffing of Mubarak and Calderon an "oversimplification," and added that he is "not in favor of producing ethanol from corn."

That's because Brazil's ethanol industry has been going strong for three decades and is producing sugar cane ethanol with an energy balance 7 times what corn returns.

Brazilian ethanol also costs less to distill from cane to automotive fuel than corn ethanol... about a full third less, at 22 cents per gallon compared to 30 cents for the U.S. stuff. And there are other solutions that haven't even entered the mainstream yet.

I've traveled around South America and heard optimism for sugar beets, jatropha, and other feedstocks you may never have heard of.

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---

And you haven't heard of them because American politicians have been doing their best to keep them off your menu of energy options.

In fact, Congress is penalizing Brazil for getting biofuels right, to the tune of a 54 cent-per-gallon tariff.

How's that for free trade?

Well here's what's going on right now: Corn ethanol is now so expensive—around $2.80 per gallon—that even after adding 54 cents to Brazilian ethanol's $1.87 market cost, it still comes out at a price advantage to the main U.S. biofuel.

Brazilian Ethanol is Ready to Break Out

That's why we think this company's stock is going to explode.

The American electorate is fuming as gas prices keep ticking upwards, and a few politicians are now responding with a common sense policy change—removing, or at least lowering, the tariff on ethanol imports.

Democratic California Senator Dianne Feinstein says "given the record oil prices and the limited supplies of domestic ethanol," charging 54 cents per gallon more for Brazilian biofuel "makes no sense. Judd Gregg, a Republican from New Hampshire, agrees, so he and Feinstein launched a measure in the upper house to strike the absurd subsidy.

Record flooding in America's corn-producing heartland this summer just adds to the case for energy options.

After all, "energy independence" doesn't mean shutting out the best technology from other parts of the world. It's more about having multiple cards to play when something goes wrong in the energy world.

Whether it's escalating attacks in Nigeria or flooding in Iowa, far-flung parts of the globe are now tied through energy supply and demand.

"The Ethanol Business Has Completely Changed"

The Wall Street Journal says Brazilian ethanol exports should come in at around 1.27 billion gallons this year, up 37% from last year's total.

Most of that will go to the United States, with or without a tariff cut. But how will the Brazilians benefit if we drop the 54-cent innovation tax?

"I would say that without any tariff, we would export around two billion liters (527.7 million gallons) more this year and with a lower tariff, around one billion," one official at Brazil's Union of Sugarcane Industries, told the Journal.

Now, my colleague, Nick Hodge, just back from the Renewable Energy Finance Forum on Wall Street, tells me the sense on the Street is that Brazil is going to ramp up production whether or not we're smart enough to drop the duty.

European markets are now clamoring for sugarcane ethanol, and the same goes for ravenous developing countries like China and India.

"Over the last 10 days, the ethanol business has completely changed," Martinho Seiiti Ono, one of Brazil's biggest ethanol brokers, said over the weekend.

Indeed, the whole energy business is in flux. There are plenty of ways to profit as politicians scramble. We'll keep you up to date with the latest.

Regards,
Sam Hopkins

P.S. The fact is that most of the winning power innovations are coming from foreign markets these days. Whether in Brazil or Norway, Green Chip International is delivering real returns with new energy ideas, even in today's bearish market. To learn more about our Brazilian ethanol play that's about to break brand new highs, click here.

WTF AZ Budget?

June 24, 2008

Dear Arizona Taxpayer,

First, our apologies for sending so many emails—this is a busy time of the year, with lobbyists and legislators trying to sneak through a lot of bills before the Session closes.

First, the good news: We are close to beating the Big Boondoggle Bill of 2008. We have it on good authority that SB1433 will not go to the House Commerce Committee this week. A BIG THANKS to all of you who wrote to your Legislators!

However, the proponents of the special-interest tax breaks have broken the Big Boondoggle Bill into pieces, and are running the pieces through different committees. On Thursday (June 26), Rep. Michele Reagan’s House Commerce Committee may hear SB1084, which would create a special tax break for ballparks. Also on Thursday, Rep. Lucy Mason’s House Water and Agriculture Committee may hear HB2872, which would create special tax breaks for the solar industry. We’ll keep you posted…

Now, for some bad news: The Eloy theme park bill, SB1450, passed in the Senate today with 17 Yes votes. Thanks to Senators Carolyn Allen, Ken Cheuvront, Jorge Luis Garcia, Pamela Gorman, Jack Harper, Barbara Leff, Deb McCune Davis, Jay Tibshraeny, and Jim Waring, for voting against granting special tax-free bonding privileges to the theme park.

And extra thanks to Senator Ron Gould of Lake Havasu City, for his efforts to engage in a “silent filibuster” against the Eloy theme park bill during the Senate vote today. During the roll call, Sen. Gould tied up the proceedings by refusing to cast his vote. Eventually, the Senate President asked the Senate to “excuse” Gould in order to finish the roll-call vote, which is why his vote appears as an “E” instead of an “N” in the vote tally:

http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/legtext/48leg/2r/bills/sb1450.sfinal.1.asp

The Eloy theme park bill now goes to Gov. Janet Napolitano…

Finally, there is the TRULY AWFUL NEWS: FY2009 budget bills have begun to emerge, with less than a week left in the Session. The Senate proposal—which is basically the Governor’s budget—contains a paltry $361 million in spending reductions. The House proposal contains $505 million in spending reductions. Both budgets are far short of the $2.2 billion in reductions needed to balance the budget without resorting to borrowing, fund transfers, tax increases, and accounting gimmicks. Either budget would result in a cash deficit carry-forward (something that is supposed to be unconstitutional) of over $1 billion next year.

Dollar for dollar, this is shaping up to be the worst budget we have ever seen. And we’ve seen some bad budgets.

For Liberty,

--Tom

Tom Jenney

Arizona Director

Americans for Prosperity

(Arizona Federation of Taxpayers)

www.aztaxpayers.org

tjenney@afphq.org

(602) 478-0146

Drinking the Kool Aid

By Jim Bretney to Strider

You know I wish you would celebrate the cause of Republicans every once in a while like how the Congressional Republicans (94-06) have been wanting to open up ANWR since 2001? That we would not be in this crisis if we would have passed Bush's Energy Bill back in 01 before 9/11. What about how the Congressional GOP (94-06) have been wanting to open up the OffShore Drilling back in 05 when gas was a buck and change? How about talking about how our boys have been sponsored over 100 pieces of legislation to open up drilling and innovate our infrastructure? How about talking more about Representative Roy Blount (R-MO) and how our GOP minority is trying to get drill here and drill now and campaign on that as a winning issue in November?

Why is it that it is easier to criticize than it is to build up? Come on, you were in the service. You know better.


Jimbo



--- On Wed, 6/25/08, strider wrote:

From: strider
Subject: Radical Treason of Dims (and some Reps?)
To: Undisclosed-Recipient:;>@NONE
Date: Wednesday, June 25, 2008, 8:51 AM

Just though this would make one think.

For years the congress was controlled by Republicans, and what did they do about any of this? Actually, the ban on off shore drilling was signed by G.H.W. Bush. Liberals and environmentalist who are not members of congress cannot be blamed for anything other than lobbying. They don't make laws. And, while all this was going on, where was the party except out trying to elect more Republicans whether or not they believed in the Republican principles.

Jim

To be removed from the list click here.

----- Original Message -----

From: "Johnny Minton" <johnelisa@cox.net>

To: "Johnny Minton" <johnelisa@cox.net>

Sent: Wednesday, June 25, 2008 12:31 AM

Subject: Radical Treason of Dims

>
> For those who don't know, Chuck Norris, the movie and TV star, writes a
> weekly syndicated column. In a recent column he points out how the laws
> passed by liberal/socialist Dimocrits (pandering to radical
> environmentalists for campaign money) have blocked U.S. oil companies
> ability to provide gasoline and natural gas to American consumers. This is
> the primary reason you are paying $4.50 per gallon for gas and it will just
> get worse until these Dimocrits are voted out of office. You understand
> that the longer Dims retain political power (control of Congress), the more
> YOU will suffer from higher prices for everything??
>
> GenghisJhan, HCC
>
> -- Though we have more oil in the shale of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming than
> there is in the Middle East (800 billion barrels), liberals and
> environmentalists have made it illegal to touch it.
> -- It's illegal to drill in northern Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife
> Refuge or off the coasts of Florida or California.
> -- It's illegal to explore the Atlantic Ocean for oil.
> -- It's illegal to explore the Pacific Ocean for oil.
> -- We're not receiving leases anymore to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, while
> China, Venezuela and Cuba are.
> -- We haven't built an oil refinery in more than 30 years and have reduced
> in half those we have.
> -- American airlines are in danger of going out of business.
> -- American truckers are being stranded on the sides of roads.
> -- American commuters are going bankrupt trying to travel back and forth to
> work and are being forced to work locally for lower wages.
> -- There's enough natural gas beneath America (406 trillion cubic feet) to
> heat every home in America for the next 150 years, but we can't tap it all.
> -- We have the largest supply of coal in the world, but it's Germany who is
> planning to build 27 coal-fired power plants by 2020.
> -- Etc.!
> Bill Clinton once said, "We just have to slow down our economy and cut back
> our greenhouse gas emissions 'cause we have to save the planet for our
> grandchildren." That is the type of mentality that got us in this trouble.
> We're saving the planet but killing our economy and nation.
>
>
>
>

Morris Tries To Triangulate Oil

So the willingness of sellers to unload their oil futures, and of buyers to acquire them, sets up its own market of supply and demand that has more to do with determining the actual price of oil than even the global demand and supply for the product itself.

On May 20 of this year, Masters told Congress: “Commodities futures prices are the benchmark for the prices of actual physical commodities, so when index speculators drive futures prices higher, the effects are felt immediately in spot prices and the real economy. So there is a direct link between commodities futures prices and the prices your constituents are paying for essential goods.”

Gheit and Norman suggest that the CFTC regulate the domestic oil futures market (NYMEX) and the participation of U.S. companies in the ICE, restoring the caps on the amount of oil futures speculators can buy. Gheit also urges raising margin requirements for them.

Both worry that the oil futures bubble is going to burst and cost a lot of investors — particularly pension funds who channel their investments through the swap desks of the brokerage houses. We don’t need another sub-prime or savings-and-loan crisis on our hands right now.

The Senate recently tried to force CFTC regulation of all commodities speculators, but the bill was loaded down with a windfall profits tax, so the Republicans killed it.

John McCain needs to get with this program. In his town hall meeting in New York City last Thursday night, he attacked speculators for driving up oil prices but didn’t propose remedies or really explain the problem.

Americans will pay close attention if he does. For McCain, this is the issue and now is the time to use it.


Sorry Morris, but a bipartisan path is not what is in order here. Drill here and drill now! Once we open up exploration the bubble will burst giving the market not regulators the corrective "oversight" you desire.

Novak

ENPR -- McCain's Libertarian Problem and Evangelical Problem by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney (more by this author) Posted 06/18/2008 ET Updated 06/18/2008 ET Outlook The widely expected pivot to the center by Sen. Barack Obama began Tuesday with his Wall Street Journal interview in which he suggested he might cut the corporate tax rate. That contradicted everything the Democratic candidate had previously said and suggested a new economic strategy. It goes along with his move toward free trade positions and his statement that he would not negotiate with Iran without preconditions—also contradicting his primary election positions. Sen. John McCain, in contrast, made a move back toward the GOP conservative base by advocating offshore drilling (though not backtracking on his opposition to ANWR drilling), and assailing the notion of a windfall profits tax, which he had entertained just weeks ago. The energy issue—propelled to the top rank of voter concern by runaway gasoline prices—poses a clear difference between the two candidates. The bottom line on the confused negotiation on debates between the two presidential candidates is that the Obama campaign rebuffed McCain's bid for weekly town-meeting debates. Obama wants a Lincoln-Douglas style debate—which means the candidates would deliver long speeches, a format McCain rejects. Both camps agree that the networks should not run the debates as they did in both parties during the primary season. The deft handling of the Obama campaign went astray when it named Patty Solis Doyle chief-of-staff for the yet to be named vice presidential candidate. She was fired as Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign manager and is estranged from her. Thus, Doyle's selection by Obama is a crude signal that Clinton won't be on the ticket and constitutes a mistake from the standpoint of building party unity. Conversation has increased about the possibility of Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.) for Vice President, heightened because of word spread that Biden really wants the job. He is an old-fashioned ticket balancer juxtaposed against Obama—older, more experienced, well versed in foreign policy, and Catholic. He definitely is not the new politics. When McCain says he cannot police all manner of campaign ads by independent groups, he is signaling that he will not stop "527s" from hitting Obama during the campaign. Presidential Conservative Dissent: McCain's biggest problem continues to be his trouble with the conservative base. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.), who garnered significant chunks of the Republican primary electorate in the late primaries, has made it clear he will not endorse McCain. Paul's loud and enthusiastic following is small, but if they stay at home or vote third-party in tight states, they could help Obama. McCain will have trouble appealing to limited-government conservatives, but when contrasted with Obama, he could win back many of the Paul followers. The key question on the libertarian side of the ledger will be the strength of former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr, the Libertarian nominee. Barr lacks the rock-star quality of Paul, and his mixed record on foreign policy, domestic security, and gay marriage will turn off some of the libertarian purists. Will he appeal to disaffected small-government conservatives? Barr sees his strongest region being the Mountain West, where Nevada and Colorado sit on the edge of the McCain-Obama battle. Barr could tip those states in Obama's direction if he gets just 2 percent. The fear of Barr swinging his home state Georgia to the Obama column is overblown. Bush won 58% in Georgia in 2004, and a higher black turnout in 2008 would be partially offset by the white Democrats who vote Republican. Also, remember that Barr lost a GOP primary to end his congressional career, so he is hardly Georgia's favorite son. On the religious conservative side, McCain is also facing difficulties. Ineptitude and insensitivity resulted in insults to two evangelical leaders, the Rev. John Hagee and Focus on the Family's James Dobson. Hagee has told friends that McCain "threw [him] under the bus," by soliciting his endorsement, and then disowning him after news came out about a previous offensive-sounding comment about Hitler (Hagee actually has very strong ties to the Jewish community, but many groups objected angrily to the comments). McCain's rush to disavow Hagee while Hagee was searching for a more gracious exit route shows the nominee's clumsiness. McCain also bungled an opportunity to patch things up with Dobson, who is very influential. Dobson had said last year that he could never vote for McCain, but this spring, he reached out to the nominee. Dobson wanted a meeting in Colorado Springs, but McCain demanded a meeting in Denver. No meeting ever happened. There is little in McCain's record as a senator to upset evangelicals, but little to excite them either: He opposes gay marriage, but voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment; he votes pro-life on most issues, but he is hardly vocal about it. To evangelicals, however, he doesn't come across as "one of us." These missteps can emphasize that problem, depressing turnout in a constituency that has been a core of GOP presidential victories starting with Ronald Reagan. Add to this McCain's un-conservative tastes, as exemplified by the two men he would most like to name as his running mate: former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-Conn.). Either of these VP nominees would destroy his conservative support, and McCain surely knows that. Obama: Obama's honeymoon is already ending, and the general election is beginning. The 8-point bump he enjoyed last week has already half-disappeared in the Rasmussen tracking poll. That bump was never more than an ephemeral bounce in the afterglow of his clinching the nomination, and the correction this week doesn't reflect any problems on his part. Last week, when longtime Democratic operative Jim Johnson was crowded out of the Obama campaign following controversy over his days at Fannie Mae and special loans he received, Obama showed a recurring weakness. Still fairly new to elected politics (12 years since his first election and 4 years since he entered the national scene), Obama keeps finding himself surrounded by unsavory figures. Johnson joins the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and landlord Tony Rezko among the key Obama associates who attract negative attention. Federal Reserve The word is out that the Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, will not raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. Bernanke is said to view the spikes in oil and gasoline prices as contractionary rather than inflationary, so that tighter money would be counterproductive. That puts the Fed and the European Central Bank in opposite directions. The ECB plans a rate increase, however modest, to fight what it considers inflationary dangers propelled by labor-negotiated wage increases. The two major central banks at odds constitute a worrisome development in the global economy. It makes Bernanke's course all the more difficult in trying to do the right thing at a time when the ability of central banking to influence the economy is questionable. But Bernanke has control of Fed policy and he is not going to tighten now. Senate 2008 New Mexico: The retirement of Sen. Pete Domenici (R) because of degenerative brain disease looks likely to give another Senate seat to Democrats. Rep. Tom Udall (D), who represents Santa Fe and the Northern half of the state, is the strong favorite over Rep. Steve Pearce (R) from the Southern half of the state. Pearce edged out Rep. Heather Wilson (R) in the primary June 4. Udall has a huge cash advantage, stemming from his uncontested primary and an energized nationwide fundraising Democratic base. As of May 14, Udall had raised $3.2 million and had $2.9 million on hand. Pearce had raised $1.9 million, but he spent almost all of it on his competitive primary. Udall is a well-known and well-liked politician who taps perfectly into the environmentalist zeitgeist of the state. His liberal base is large and energetic while Pearce's conservative base is much smaller. Bush hangs like a rain cloud over the GOP here, and McCain might not bring any coattails. It's believable then when one New Mexico Republican tells us of a poll showing Udall up by 31 points. Pearce will distance himself from the White House and work hard for Wilson's moderate backers, and Republicans will beat up Udall to knock him down a peg. Still, it's hard to see how Pearce wins without a major scandal that brings down Udall. Likely Democratic Takeover. House 2008 New Mexico-1: This could be a very bad year for Republicans in New Mexico. Together with the likely loss of the U.S. Senate seat, both GOP-held house seats are in danger. In the Albuquerque seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Heather Wilson (R), Republicans have the benefit of a strong candidate in Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R), but they have the disadvantage of demography and a bad political environment. Democrats have nominated Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich (D). White has strong name recognition, as the district is nearly co-extensive with Bernalillo County. He has the right pedigree, too: He's an elected sheriff (which means his record is helpfully thin on policy issues), he served in the state law enforcement agency, he worked as a TV news reporter, and he has been involved in campaigns before. His weakness is his connection to the President: Bush held a fundraiser for him recently, and White was Bush's campaign chairman for the county in 2004. Heinrich is a liberal city councilman, which means he (1) is not well known, but (2) has a voting record. Both facts are damaging. He has strong support among the local party, the unions, and the liberal environmentalists. Considering only the candidates, White has the edge, but the political landscape seriously favors Heinrich. Bush's name and the GOP brand are dirt in New Mexico. Tom Udall is likely to dominate the Senate race. In Albuquerque at least, Obama enthusiasm could drive up Democratic turnout, while luke- warmness about McCain could suppress GOP turnout. Domenici won't be able to help White, while Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) could be on hand to boost all of the Democratic candidates. Because we expect a strong Democratic tide, White's strengths look likely to be wiped out by a Democratic surge. Leaning Democratic Takeover. New Mexico-2: This is the "Republican district" in New Mexico, but it could be represented by a Democrat next year. In 2004, Bush took 58 percent of this district, which covers the Southern half of the state, but the GOP might have nominated the wrong candidate. Chain-restaurateur Ed Tinsley (R) doesn't live in the district. Instead, he hails from the wealthy, artsy Las Campanas community in Santa Fe, which is in the 3rd District. The Democratic nominee, Harry Teague (D) is an oilman and former county commissioner from Lea County, in the Texas part of the state. Teague is as conservative as Tinsley, and he will ruthlessly use the carpetbagger attack against him. The GOP strength of this district should push Tinsley over the top, but the party is still slightly fractured after the tough primary. Leaning Republican Retention. New Mexico-3: Like Districts 1 and 2, the Santa Fe-based 3rd District has an open-seat contest this year. Unlike those two GOP-held seats, this one is not competitive. Ben Lujan (D), son of the State House Speaker, is the Democratic nominee. He's not a particularly impressive candidate, but this is a Democratic district, and Lujan will have the state party leadership firmly behind him. Republicans nominated contractor Dan East (R), who doesn't have much of a chance. Likely Democratic Retention. Tuesday Results Maryland-4: Liberal activist Donna Edwards (D) thrashed Ron Paul activist Peter James (R) by 60 points in the special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Albert Wynn (D). Wynn decided to resign after Edwards defeated him the February primary in this majority-black, overwhelmingly Democratic district in the D.C. suburbs. Edwards is nearly a shoo-in to win a full term in the November general election. For the first time since Rep. Charlie Norwood's (R-Ga.) death on February 13, 2007, there are no House vacancies or pending vacancies. The Democratic majority now stands at 236-199 after having picked up three seats in special elections this past spring. Membership Changes, 110th Congress Former Member Party State District Left Office Replaced by Party Charlie Norwood R Ga. 10 Died Feb. 13, 2007 Paul Broun R Juanita Millender-McDonald D Calif. 37 Died April 22, 2007 Laura Richardson D Marty Meehan D Mass. 5 Resigned July 1, 2007 to become college chancellor. Niki Tsongas D Jo Ann Davis R Va. 1 Died Oct. 6, 2007 Rob Wittman R Dennis Hastert R Ill. 14 Resigned Nov. 26, 2007 Bill Foster D Julia Carson D Ind. 7 Died Dec. 15, 2007 Andre Carson D Roger Wicker R Miss. 1 Resigned Dec. 31, 2007 to become senator. Travis Childers D Bobby Jindal R La. 1 Resigned Jan. 14, 2008 to become governor. Steve Scalise R Richard Baker R La. 6 Resigned Feb. 2, 2008 to become lobbyist. Don Cazayoux D Tom Lantos D Calif. 12 Died Feb. 11, 2008 Jackie Speier D Albert Wynn D Md. 4 Resigned June 1, 2008, to become lobbyist Donna Edwards D Mr. Novak is a syndicated columnist and editor of the Evans-Novak Political Report, a political newsletter he founded in 1967 with Rowland Evans. Click here to get a free subscription. Advertise | Privacy Policy | Terms and Conditions Copyright © 2008 HUMAN EVENTS. All Rights Reserved.

Tim Bee Grand Opening

Tim Bee for Congress
BEE BUZZ June 18, 2008


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Tim Bee for Congress | P.O. Box 31985 | Tucson | AZ | 85751

Limbuagh Update

On Today’s Show...

Landmark Rush Monologue: If terrorists get constitutional rights under this latest Supreme Court decision, and if Obama's advisors say Bin Laden is innocent until proven guilty, why are we trying to kill terrorists? Why aren't we trying to arrest Osama Bin Laden, read him his Miranda rights, and give him a lawyer?

"Somebody ought to ask Obama: 'If we capture Bin Laden and we put him on trial, do you believe, sir, he should be presumed innocent? And if he's found not guilty in a court of law, do we just let him go after the trial?'" (Rush 24/7 Members: Listen Here)
» Bill Sammon: Obama Advisers Say Bin Laden Can Appeal to U.S. Civilian Courts

We finally have an issue to separate us from the Democrats, an issue that's clear to Americans: drill for oil here at home, and reduce prices at the pump. McCain and the president support this. So do 67% of voters. The only ones opposing it are the No-Drill Democrats, who want you miserable and angry. (Rush 24/7 Members: Listen Here)
» Inst. for Energy Research: Truth About Leasing on the Outer Continental Shelf

Pearl of Wisdom: "The real story is not how McCain is like George W. Bush. The real story is how identical the Obama campaign is to every Democrat presidential campaign since McGovern. He will serve Jimmy Carter's second term. There's nothing new here. There is no change." (Rush 24/7 Members: Listen Here)

A caller says it's not enough to compare Obama to his ideological mentor, the disastrous Jimmy Carter. True, but your host goes after the entire Obama record.
The Obama campaign is outraged at the Obama campaign for telling Muslim women in hijabs they couldn't sit behind Obama at a rally. (Rush 24/7 Members: Listen Here)

Pearl of Wisdom: "So under a President Obama, we're going to go back to the Clinton era way of fighting the war on terror in the courts -- and this is new?"

Who started the "whitey" tape rumor about your wife, Senator Obama? Why, it was a liberal hack, Larry Johnson. It wasn't Rush, not McCain, or any Republican who did it.

Sen. Chris Dodd -- one of the Countrywide Six Democrats who got sweetheart mortgage deals from the disgraced lender -- says he had no idea VIP treatment meant special treatment. This is the culture of greed. (Rush 24/7 Members: Listen Here)

From Rush's Stack of Stuff Quick Hits Page:
» Michelle Obama Causes Whoopi Goldberg to Wet Herself on The View
» Algore Mansion's Energy Use Up 10%, Proving His Solutions Don't Work
» Mississippi River Swells, Drive-Bys Yawn (Until it Empties Out in New Orleans)
» Jellyfish Profundity: Nature Cannot be "Out of Sync;" It is By Definition, Natural.

All that and more when we update RushLimbaugh.com!

Now at Rush 24/7: Wednesday's show audio, podcasts || Total Stack of Stuff

Program Note: Rush will be off Thursday and Friday. Guest hosts will cover.

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A Libertarian on the SV City Council?

--- On Wed, 6/18/08, David Morgan wrote:

From: David Morgan
Subject: A Libertarian on the SV City Council?
To:
Date: Wednesday, June 18, 2008, 8:07 AM

Is it possible?

Scott Thompson, 27, (galtplan24@yahoo.com Cell 520-208-3719) obtained enough signatures to get on the ballot for the non-partisan Sierra Vista City Council election this fall.

In a recent meeting he related to me that he is ex-Army, currently a UAV instructor employed by General Dynamics, with a very young family and a new mortgage -- and concerned with the economic/political direction of the city (and the country). He is a self-described Libertarian and fan of Ayn Rand.

Libertarians espouse "smaller government, lower taxes, more freedom" http://www.lp.org/

Given that, and the recent electoral history of members to the SV city council, it will be an steep uphill battle to displace any incumbent. Non-partisan as it may supposedly be, the council is made up of persons who all look, and sound, alike (and I'll wager on political affiliations) - and perhaps that is comfortable to the majority of citizens in the community or at least those that vote.

The City successfully rid themselves of the only non-homogenized member of the council when two years ago long-time local entrepreneur Tomas Gallegos resigned after a bogus County Attorney-led criminal indictment (later dismissed) so discouraged him that he left town and sold his local small business of 20 years. (His council-appointed replacement, Stephanie Prudence, resigned less than a year later when the mortgage broker for whom she worked filed bankruptcy, providing a convenient time to move to Hawaii where she now works for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.)

The 2006 council candidacy of student Chris Campas, even younger than Mr Thompson, in which he very narrowly lost his bid for a seat on the SV City Council in the last election, may provide hope and instruction for Mr Thompson. (Campas is now a Democratic candidate for Cochise County Board of Supervisors.) But you can be sure that the current local political powers, the city administration, and the SV Herald won't allow that kind of risk to their comfortable positions to happen again without a big fight (though all will say very nice things about a young man who is interested in "bettering" the community and will support him for an interim, non-authoritative position).

NONE of the candidates or sitting councilmembers has (to my knowledge) a record of entrepreneurship or even significant work in the real private (non-government contractor) sector. They all get, and have for a long time, taxpayer-paid government checks.

That is apparently true also, for a lesser time, of candidate Scott Thompson, but at least he expresses some concern about the economic and political impact of such a narrowly limited local economy.

I'll stop just short of a full endorsement for Mr Thompson. I need to learn more of his positions on specific local matters - and I've not yet had the opportunity (which may not happen) for one-on-one meetings with other candidates - but I certainly support his candidacy so as to expand the dialog and options for voters.

And, I have pledged a tiny cash contribution to his campaign.

I urge you to consider communicating with him and supporting his candidacy in whatever way you are able and seems appropriate.


--
For the Record,

David M Morgan
Investigator, Writer, Publisher
COCHISE COUNTY RECORD
112 N 7th ST
Sierra Vista, AZ 85635 (USA)
(520) 236-4051

News and information about your government and community that you won't find anywhere else

(alternative e-mails DavidMarshallMorgan2002@yahoo.com and davidmmorgan@hotmail.com)

Election Update

Funny isn't funny, if there is no truth in it. This cartoon is salient and sage.

Rush said that this election will be an up or down vote on Obama. If the American electorate perceives him as being too expensive, too liberal and too scary, then we will win. But he has a lot of money and though this is the top of the summer, he still has a 6 point lead in the polls.

Battleground states are in Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, and Pennsylvania. Winning over the moderates will be key to this election. Moderates are telling John McCain that running away from Bush is not the way to go, but instead tell the voters what you would do different. Moderates are telling Obama to stop pandering, quit being so negative, can we stop with the vapid general platitudes and be truthful and honest about who you are and who your associations are.

We are looking at mid-June right now. To give you some perspective of how important the summer is after the fourth of July four years ago Kerry picked his running mate and by August, Kerry had been swift boated. Voters in the summer like to flirt with fanciful ideas which favor Obama. But by fall and November, voters get more pragmatic.

And what about his running mate? Hillary Clinton can make this summer one very very cruel summer if Obama doesn't pick her. If he doesn't pay her off to the tune of 30 million dollars (campaign debt) or pick her up as VP, winning will be much much harder. If the summer turns ugly for Obama meaning McCain surges to reverse the lead to six point advantage, not likely but possible, Hillary may mount a third party challenge. Not likely, but again I want to emphasize that the Clinton are defeated but not dead.

And it is in Hillary's interest to see McCain elected IF she is not selected. Given that Obama is not sure himself who he will select, he is a calculating thespian controlled by his wife, I would say the possibility that Hillary will be the Dem VP to be at 40%.

Oil has displaced all other issues. Dems like to talk about Energy where as Red Meat Republicans on talk radio talk about drilling here and drilling now. This election will hinge on who can bring gas prices down the fastest. I told you that oil would be the most important issue of this election.

One final word about McCain. He has a Lazarus like ability to come from behind and come back from the dead. His powers of prophesy i.e. seeing that Iraq under the surge endears him to many Americans. His weaknesses are his vanity and his anger. He sure can hold a grudge and he tends to sistah souljah the wrong people. Look for him to come home to conservatism after the first 100 days and I don't think he will serve one term. I think he will do two and become one of the best Presidents we have ever had inaugarating a new American Renaissance.

BACK TO THE FUTURE: Carter is to Iran as Obama is to Pakistan

Obama is extremely hostile to Pakistan, but Senators Dodd and Clinton outline why such a hostility is ill fated:

Will Obama close Fort Huachuca?

Watch these videos and you tell me . . . .



He will cut future combat systems - a program that Fort Huachuca is directly involved in.

McCain 270 Obama 268

Electoral College Outlook: McCain 270, Obama 268
by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney
Posted: 05/28/2008

Outlook

1. Sen. Hillary Clinton’s comment that Robert F. Kennedy’s assassination in 1968 justified her staying in the presidential race was an event that crystallized the antipathy to her inside party ranks. Even old-time Clintonites were appalled.

2. The most important political impact of Clinton’s conduct is to make Sen. Barack Obama’s task as nominee more difficult. For the first time, we hear serious talk among Democrats that the party may not be fully able to join ranks at the convention in Denver in late August.

3. The hostility on both sides is intense. Clinton’s labor union base (AFCSME, American Federation of Teachers, and the International Association of Machinists) pounds away at Obama (he was booed in a recent rally in Puerto Rico). Obama partisans refer to “feminists” unreasonably prolonging the competition. The longer this continues, the more difficult will be reconciliation.

4. But the steady endorsement of Obama by more super-delegates is incontestable. Such old-time Clinton backers as Roger Altman and Sarah Kovner are saying the battle is over. Nobody has any doubts about who will be nominated, which makes Clinton’s campaign more destructive.

5. The next showdown will come Saturday at the meeting of the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to finally settle the Florida and Michigan delegate disputes. To the consternation of Democrats seeking a solution, Clinton supporters are disputing the compromise that would give Obama uncommitted delegates from Michigan. Clintonistas argue that the “uncommitted” delegates are up for grabs.

6. Sen. John McCain, however, still does not appear organized to take advantage of Democratic disarray. His biggest problem may be failure to realize that the Republican coalition is not fully united behind him. The most recent defectors are lobbyists expelled from his campaign who are not happy about their treatment. We continue to hear complaints from evangelicals, economic conservatives, and other critics of McCain. The refrain continues from conservatives that maybe the country and the GOP need four years of Obama.

Presidential

Electoral College: While national polls garner attention, they have no direct bearing on choosing our next President. A state-by-state count of electoral votes is the key to analyzing the presidential race.

For the first time this year, we run through all 50 states plus the District of Columbia in order to handicap the presidential race. Outlook: If the election were held today, we see a McCain victory by the narrowest of margins.

The electoral map looks nearly identical to 2004, with Iowa and Colorado swinging into the Democratic camp. Beneath the surface, however, we see Michigan and Pennsylvania becoming more competitive for Republicans.

The election will hinge on two regions: Lake Erie and the Mountain West. An Obama win in New Mexico or Nevada would be enough to tip the scales, but a McCain win in Pennsylvania could put the race out of reach. In the end, as always, it comes down to Ohio, where Obama’s weakness among rural whites could send McCain to the White House. McCain 270, Obama 268.


Alabama (9): McCain will be safe in this Deep South state. Solid Republican.

Alaska (3): While this state’s GOP is undergoing political upheaval, and Democrats could possibly steal a House and Senate seat thanks to corruption on the part of entrenched Republican incumbents, on a national level, this is a solidly Republican state. McCain doesn’t help himself by opposing drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR), but he shouldn’t have to worry about this state. Solid Republican.

Arizona (10): Karl Rove has worried about Arizona in the past, in part because of the immigrant influx. But this is McCain’s home state, and he will carry it easily. Solid Republican.

Arkansas (6): The Democratic stronghold in the South, Arkansas has two safe Democratic senators, and three of four congressmen are Democrats. Still, Obama will struggle in all Southern states, and this one is no more friendly than the others. Solid Republican.

California (55): Every four years Republicans talk about having a chance here, and they give a new reason. In truth, Republicans need to raise funds in wealthy Orange County and other rich parts of the Golden State, and writing off this once-Republican state is not a good way to extract campaign cash from it.

This year a constitutional amendment on gay marriage -- overturning the recent state supreme court decision that the state must approve same-sex marriages -- can a boost McCain. While gay marriage initiatives have helped Republican candidates in the past (especially in 2004), the turnout effect in California won’t be huge, nor is McCain the natural candidate for anti-gay-marriage voters, considering his opposition to a federal marriage amendment in Congress.

Liberal, black, and college populations will turn out in droves for Obama, while immigration resentment in San Diego and the Los Angeles are will hurt McCain, the author of the 2006 amnesty bill. Solid Democratic.

Colorado (9): Bush won here in 2004 by 100,000 votes out of 2.1 million, but Colorado has shown a tack to towards Democrats since then. In 2006, Democrats took over a Senate seat, the governorship, and a U.S. House seat. This year, Democrats are poised to pick up the second Senate seat. With the Democratic National Convention in Denver stirring liberal excitement, Colorado looks like one of Obama’s best chances to win a Bush state. Leaning Democratic.

Connecticut (7): Connecticut is liberal and Democratic, and a hawkish Republican is not going to do well. Wealthy white liberals with advanced degrees are a big chunk of Obama’s base. If McCain picks Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID) as his running mate, Connecticut might be in play. The Lieberman endorsement on its own does almost nothing to help McCain. Solid Democratic.

Delaware (3): Al Gore’s and John Kerry’s wins here in 2000 and 2004 were not dominant, and Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) barely won reelection in 2004. This state could make its way onto the battleground, but early on it looks like an Obama victory. Leaning Democratic.

District of Columbia (3): If you live in D.C. and you’re not black, you’re probably a rich liberal lawyer or lobbyist. This could be a blowout of unprecedented proportions. Libertarian nominee Bob Barr could challenge McCain for second place with about 4% each. Solid Democratic.

Florida (27): Crucial to a Republican victory, Florida is looking promising for McCain early on. In the primaries, McCain scored a big win here, while Obama boycotted the state and is now working to patch up relations. Even before the general election began, McCain had the edge here.

The senior-citizen vote throughout the state will tilt strongly towards McCain for three reasons: he is one of them; older white voters will be hesitant to elect a black President, and such a young President; the veteran community will be warm towards McCain. Add on Obama’s stance of engagement with Cuba and a possible Jewish problem, and things stack up well for McCain. If McCain picks popular Gov. Charlie Crist (R) as his running mate, he could lock up the state (while possibly hurting himself elsewhere).

Obama could certainly win Florida, but don’t be surprised if it starts to fade off the radar screen by October and the McCain grip on it tightens. Leaning Republican.

Georgia (15): Obama talks about winning Southern states in November because he won them in January, February, and March. But winning a Democratic primary is much easier for a black liberal than winning a general election is. Georgia might be his best shot in the South, but it’s not a very good shot. Solid Republican.

Hawaii (4): Obama will dominate his native state in November as he dominated it in March. McCain can save on airfare and reduce his carbon footprint by skipping this state. Solid Democratic.

Idaho (4): This state is too pro-gun and pro-life to vote for Obama. Bush won 2-to-1 here twice. This year won’t be much different. Solid Republican.

Illinois (21): Obama’s home hasn’t been a swing state in a while, and this is not the year. Obama will dominate here. Solid Democratic.

Indiana (11): Indiana has been solid Republican turf in recent presidential contests, with Bush wins of 16 and 21 points in his two runs here. But this year McCain will need to work hard to keep this state in the GOP column.

Obama’s first advantage is Lake County, which includes the cities of Gary and East Chicago as well as some liberal suburbs. This is Obama’s home turf and the second-most populous county in the state. Indianapolis has a high black population, while Bloomington’s liberal university population could generate enthusiasm (although only 28,000 people voted in Monroe County in the Democratic primary).

McCain lacks the down-home appeal that made Christian Midwestern voters so drawn to Bush, adding to Obama’s hopes. Democrats, of course, picked up three congressional seats in Indiana in 2006. However, Democrats have gained here with socially conservative candidates. With Obama and governor candidate Jill Long Thompson atop the Democratic column, Indiana Republicans should have a rebound year in 2008. Leaning Republican.

Iowa (7): While Iowa is certainly its own creature politically, Obama’s strong showing in early head-to-head polls ought to give Republicans reason to worry about the Heartland. Democrats picked up two House seats here in 2006, and Republicans have no chance to win them back. Senator Tom Harkin (D), a hardcore liberal, also has no serious challenger this year.

Iowa, of course, was the state that catapulted Obama towards the nomination while McCain (prudently) skipped it for New Hampshire. Obama is from a neighboring state, and McCain doesn’t rally the conservative base. This swing state appears set to swing back to where it was in 2000: the Democratic column. Leaning Democratic.

Kansas (6): The Kansas GOP is not in good shape, and Obama dominated the caucuses here, but a liberal Democrat isn’t going to carry this state in a presidential election, even if Obama picks Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) as his running mate. Solid Republican.

Kentucky (8): This state is trending Democratic in some ways, and Obama claims to have strong inroads into the South, but his inability to win rural white voters in the primary here demonstrates that the commonwealth is not really in play this year. Solid Republican.

Louisiana (9): One of the nation’s most intriguing states politically, Gov. Bobby Jindal’s 2007 landslide looked like the beginning of a GOP avalanche until Democrats captured the Baton Rouge congressional seat in a special election earlier this month. A high black population and a probably safe Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) weigh in on Obama’s behalf. The influential sugar industry here won’t be pleased with McCain, either. Still, this is now a GOP state like the rest of the Deep South, and they are not about to elect a liberal, pro-choice Democrat. Leaning Republican.

Maine (4): Increasingly a Democratic stronghold, the demographics here cut in both directions. Old white people tend to be McCain voters, but leisure-class New Englanders are Obama people. Gore didn’t get a majority here in 2000, but that’s because Ralph Nader posted 6%. Obama is the strong favorite here, but this one could drift in either direction. Maine is one of two states in the country that are not winner-take-all in the Electoral College. The statewide winner gets two electoral votes, and the winner of each congressional district is awarded one elector each. Leaning Democratic.

Maryland (10): Maryland is even less winnable for the GOP with Obama atop the ticket than it was in 2000 and 2004. The mixture of wealthy whites and urban blacks makes this Obama country. Solid Democratic.

Massachusetts (12): The Bay State is beyond the reach of any Republican. Obama might not fare as well in South Boston as a whiter candidate would, but he won’t lose the most Democratic state in the nation. Solid Democratic.

Michigan (17): Michigan may be McCain’s best chance to win a 2004 Blue State. As with Florida, McCain has the advantage out of the starting gate, having posted two strong primary performances here while Obama boycotted the state.

Democrats have won all of the top-tier statewide races this decade (three Senate contests, two governor races, and both Presidential races), and the GOP brand is damaged thanks, in part, to George W. Bush and the poor economy. But still, McCain has a good chance here. A Rasmussen poll in early May of 500 likely voters showed a dead heat between Obama and McCain.

Both candidates are weak in Michigan. McCain doesn’t naturally connect with hunters or union voters, but these are the very Democrats who have been rejecting Obama throughout the primaries. Obama’s base of college towns and black cities will give him a boost over previous Democrats, but his consistent weakness among union workers will drag him down.

Michigan, together with Ohio and Pennsylvania, promises to be the very heart of the 2008 battle. Libertarian Bob Barr could draw on enough gun-rights single-issue voters here to tip the scale. Leaning Democratic.

Minnesota (10): Although Kerry won Minnesota by less than 100,000 votes, Republicans may not be within striking distance here. Minnesota was one of Obama’s strongest states, thanks to a strong liberal core in the Democrat-Farm-Labor Party that will provide enthusiasm and turnout in November.

This state may stay competitive throughout, but it’s likely Obama will pull away here by the fall. Leaning Democratic.

Mississippi (6): While Democrats can point to a special election congressional pickup here, as well as a large black population, this Deep South state is safe in the GOP column with a black liberal atop the ticket. Solid Republican.

Missouri (11): Missouri is another top pickup opportunity for Obama. Bush won here twice, with a 200,000-vote victory in 2004. Things aren’t looking so rosy for Republicans these days, though, having lost a U.S. Senate seat in 2006 and poised to lose the governorship this year. Obama eked out a primary win here on Super Tuesday by winning big in the areas around St. Louis and Kansas City, but he lost badly in the rural regions of the state. His appeal to black voters and suburban voters makes him a real threat, especially if McCain fails to rally Christian conservatives throughout the state. This may be the state where McCain’s lack of stronger conservative credentials could really hurt him. As of now, McCain holds slight leads in most polls. Leaning Republican.

Montana (3): Montana is safe for McCain. Solid Republican.

Nebraska (5): Nebraska apportions one elector per congressional district, plus two electors to the statewide winner. McCain should win all five electors. Solid Republican.

Nevada (5): A prime chance for Obama to pick off some Red State electors, Bush won only 50% in both elections here. A significant libertarian turnout here is very possible. Immigration should play a role -- given the 20% Hispanic population and some resentment of unchecked immigration, the issue could cut both ways. Nevada, and not Ohio, could be McCain’s most precarious state. Leaning Republican.

New Hampshire (4): New Hampshire was one of three states to switch sides from 2000 to 2004, and it could switch back to the GOP column this year. In 2004, Kerry won the state, in part as the local boy, but also due to the Democratic surge in the Granite State. That Democratic surge doesn’t look likely to slow down in 2008.

McCain, however, has a sort of second home here, having won the state in the 2000 and 2008 primaries. His pragmatic moderation is appreciated here, and he will need to peel himself away from Bush and the GOP. This is one of the most swingable states, but early on, it leans towards Obama. Leaning Democratic.

New Jersey (15): Bush surged here in 2004, but not enough to carry the state. That was a one-time blip, and Obama should have no trouble carrying the Garden State. Solid Democratic.

New Mexico (5): Election Day ground zero could be New Mexico, three open congressional seats, an open U.S. Senate seat, and a competitive presidential contest fill the ballot.

Bush carried the state in 2004 by 6,000 votes after having lost it by 365 votes in 2000. These close races clash with the huge registration advantage Democrats hold here.

The state is 42% Hispanic, and here they vote more than in other states. Obama’s poor performance among Hispanic voters and McCain’s coming from neighboring Arizona should help him here. If Bill Richardson does not play a large role, McCain looks to have a slight edge. Leaning Republican.

New York (31): Obama will dominate here. Solid Democratic.

North Carolina (15): Obama’s strong performance in the Southern primaries doesn’t portend a competitive general election. The wine-and-cheese crowd of Charlotte, the black electorate, and the liberal college vote may be vocal, but they’re the minority in North Carolina. Solid Republican.

North Dakota (3): Bush twice won more than 60% here. While McCain may not do as well, he should walk away with this one. Solid Republican.

Ohio (20): In a familiar sight, Ohio looks likely play the role of decider this fall. As in Michigan, both candidates have more weaknesses than strengths here. McCain is no Wal-Mart family-man conservative as Bush was, but Obama has to hope that religious voters and gun owners get over the “bitterness” that caused him to lose Ohio badly in March.

Obama’s perceived elitism, his race, and his liberalism will all hurt him here, but there are pockets of wealthy suburbanites, black voters, and hardcore liberals that will help him. A new Democratic senator and governor, together with likely Democratic pickups in the U.S. House here are all promising signs for the Democratic Party, but Obama himself -- and his comments in the San Francisco fundraiser -- will not be easy sales.

McCain needs to figure out how he will talk about trade and social issues. If he handles this state well, he will win it. Leaning Republican.

Oklahoma (7): This is not the part of the Heartland that’s in play. Solid Republican.

Oregon (7): Oregon is not an overwhelmingly Democratic state, but it has strong liberal populations that will rally around Obama. McCain, however, could certainly make inroads into the rural voters. Leaning Democratic.

Pennsylvania (21): Many pundits falsely touted Pennsylvania as a swing state in 2004, when it wasn’t. It tilted heavily towards the Democrats. In 2008, however, it is back within reach for the GOP, thanks, in large part, to the Democrats’ choice of nominee. Obama’s dismal primary performance here, especially among white voters, makes this a tough state for Democrats to hold onto. Sen. Bob Casey (D) tried to help Obama with the “bitter” voters in the center of the state, but he fell short. The question for November is can Obama hold onto the Arlen Specter-Ed Rendell vote in the Philadelphia suburbs.

McCain is not the ideal candidate to pick off Casey-Santorum Democrats, and Rendell is still popular. The Keystone State favors Obama, but the closeness here gives McCain a second way to win if Ohio or Nevada falls to Obama. Leaning Democratic.

Rhode Island (4): Rhode Island is even more liberal than Massachusetts in many ways. Solid Democratic.

South Carolina (8): The Democratic primary electorate is majority black, but the November electorate is not. Obama can’t win rural whites, and so he can’t win South Carolina. Solid Republican.

South Dakota (3): This is a McCain shoo-in. Solid Republican.

Tennessee (11): More competitive than much of the South, but still a safe McCain win. Solid Republican.

Texas (34): McCain may not dominate as Bush did, but if he’s in trouble in Texas, it’s all over. Solid Republican.

Utah (5): Utah is the most Republican state in the nation. Solid Republican.

Virginia (13): There is much talk about Virginia as a Democratic pickup for 2008. Democrats hold the governorship and after November will probably hold both Senate seats. Popular former Gov. Mark Warner (D) may have an easy enough path to election his Senate race that he can stump for Obama. Democrats have made big advances in Northern Virginia as those suburbs have gained in wealth because of the growth of federal government. Add in a strong black vote near Richmond and Virginia Beach, and you see the reasons for Democratic optimism.

But many of the suburban former Republicans who have turned against Bush, former Sen. George Allen (R), and the GOP broadly will be drawn to McCain’s brand of moderation. Also, Bush won this state by nearly 10 points in 2004. Leaning Republican.

Vermont (3): The heart of liberal hippiedom will vote for Obama. Solid Democratic.

Washington (11): Obama’s strength here will make this very difficult for McCain. Solid Democratic.

West Virginia (5): Once a battleground state, this year West Virginia falls off the charts. Consider how poorly Obama did in the primary here. Solid Republican.

Wisconsin (10): This is a battleground state where Obama looks stronger than most Democrats. He shores up the Nader vote and motivates the liberal base. The black pockets in Milwaukee help out, too. Leaning Democratic.

Wyoming (3): McCain will win here easily. Solid Republican.